Projecting future impacts of climate change on Northern Australia water resources

Northern Australia (NA) is characterised by abundant yet highly variable and seasonal rainfall, with most of the precipitation occurring during the northern wet season. Climate change and shifts in the hydrological cycle are projected to exacerbate rainfall pattern variability. Resource managers, therefore, need to understand the potential effects of climate change on NA water resources to ensure economic, environmental, social, and cultural resilience through informed decision-making.

The latest hydrological projections for NA were based on global climate models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP) Phase 5 (2010-2014). Since refined CMIP Phase 6 GCMs were released, bringing a unique opportunity to enhance some of the previous hydrological projections for NA. Using the Daly River catchment area as a case study, this PhD investigates how projected changes in the water cycle (e.g., in rainfall and evapotranspiration) may impact NA water resources. Specifically, this project leverages the recent CMIP6 GCM outputs to examine the implications for groundwater, given its crucial role in supporting water security and supplying baseflow to certain surface water bodies during the dry season in NA.