TY - JOUR
T1 - A model of population dynamics with complex household structure and mobility
T2 - Implications for transmission and control of communicable diseases
AU - Chisholm, Rebecca H.
AU - Crammond, Bradley
AU - Wu, Yue
AU - Bowen, Asha C.
AU - Campbell, Patricia T.
AU - Tong, Steven Y.C.
AU - McVernon, Jodie
AU - Geard, Nicholas
PY - 2020/11/3
Y1 - 2020/11/3
N2 - Households are known to be high-risk locations for the transmission of communicable diseases. Numerous modelling studies have demonstrated the important role of households in sustaining both communicable diseases outbreaks and endemic transmission, and as the focus for control efforts. However, these studies typically assume that households are associated with a single dwelling and have static membership. This assumption does not appropriately reflect households in some populations, such as those in remote Australian Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities, which can be distributed across more than one physical dwelling, leading to the occupancy of individual dwellings changing rapidly over time. In this study, we developed an individual-based model of an infectious disease outbreak in communities with demographic and household structure reflective of a remote Australian Aboriginal community. We used the model to compare the dynamics of unmitigated outbreaks, and outbreaks constrained by a householdfocused prophylaxis intervention, in communities exhibiting fluid vs. stable dwelling occupancy. We found that fluid dwelling occupancy can lead to larger and faster outbreaks in modelled scenarios, and may interfere with the effectiveness of household-focused interventions. Our findings suggest that while short-term restrictions on movement between dwellings may be beneficial during outbreaks, in the longer-term, strategies focused on reducing household crowding may be a more effective way to reduce the risk of severe outbreaks occurring in populations with fluid dwelling occupancy.
AB - Households are known to be high-risk locations for the transmission of communicable diseases. Numerous modelling studies have demonstrated the important role of households in sustaining both communicable diseases outbreaks and endemic transmission, and as the focus for control efforts. However, these studies typically assume that households are associated with a single dwelling and have static membership. This assumption does not appropriately reflect households in some populations, such as those in remote Australian Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities, which can be distributed across more than one physical dwelling, leading to the occupancy of individual dwellings changing rapidly over time. In this study, we developed an individual-based model of an infectious disease outbreak in communities with demographic and household structure reflective of a remote Australian Aboriginal community. We used the model to compare the dynamics of unmitigated outbreaks, and outbreaks constrained by a householdfocused prophylaxis intervention, in communities exhibiting fluid vs. stable dwelling occupancy. We found that fluid dwelling occupancy can lead to larger and faster outbreaks in modelled scenarios, and may interfere with the effectiveness of household-focused interventions. Our findings suggest that while short-term restrictions on movement between dwellings may be beneficial during outbreaks, in the longer-term, strategies focused on reducing household crowding may be a more effective way to reduce the risk of severe outbreaks occurring in populations with fluid dwelling occupancy.
KW - Household model
KW - Human mobility
KW - Infectious disease transmission
KW - Mathematical modelling
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85095407758&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.7717/peerj.10203
DO - 10.7717/peerj.10203
M3 - Article
C2 - 33194407
AN - SCOPUS:85095407758
VL - 8
SP - 1
EP - 17
JO - PEERJ
JF - PEERJ
SN - 2167-8359
M1 - e10203
ER -