Accuracy of nearly-extinct-cohort methods for estimating very elderly sub-national populations

Wilma Terblanche, Thomas Wilson

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearchpeer-review

    Abstract

    Increasing very elderly populations (ages 85+) have potentially major implications for the cost of income support, aged care, and healthcare. The availability of accurate estimates for this population age group, not only at a national level but also at a state or regional scale, is vital for policy development, budgeting, and planning for services. At the highest ages census-based population estimates are well known to be problematic and previous studies have demonstrated that more accurate estimates can be obtained indirectly from death data. This paper assesses indirect estimation methods for estimating state-level very elderly populations from death counts. A method for incorporating internal migration is also proposed. The results confirm that the accuracy of official estimates deteriorates rapidly with increasing age from 95 and that the survivor ratio method can be successfully applied at subnational level and internal migration is minor. It is shown that the simpler alternative of applying the survivor ratio method at a national level and apportioning the estimates between the states produces very accurate estimates for most states and years. This is the recommended method. While the methods are applied at a state level in Australia, the principles are generic and are applicable to other subnational geographies.
    Original languageEnglish
    Article number978186
    Pages (from-to)1-16
    Number of pages16
    JournalInternational Journal of Population Research
    Volume2015
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 2015

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    elderly population
    internal migration
    estimation method
    policy development
    health care
    census
    method
    income
    cost
    geography
    services
    planning

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    title = "Accuracy of nearly-extinct-cohort methods for estimating very elderly sub-national populations",
    abstract = "Increasing very elderly populations (ages 85+) have potentially major implications for the cost of income support, aged care, and healthcare. The availability of accurate estimates for this population age group, not only at a national level but also at a state or regional scale, is vital for policy development, budgeting, and planning for services. At the highest ages census-based population estimates are well known to be problematic and previous studies have demonstrated that more accurate estimates can be obtained indirectly from death data. This paper assesses indirect estimation methods for estimating state-level very elderly populations from death counts. A method for incorporating internal migration is also proposed. The results confirm that the accuracy of official estimates deteriorates rapidly with increasing age from 95 and that the survivor ratio method can be successfully applied at subnational level and internal migration is minor. It is shown that the simpler alternative of applying the survivor ratio method at a national level and apportioning the estimates between the states produces very accurate estimates for most states and years. This is the recommended method. While the methods are applied at a state level in Australia, the principles are generic and are applicable to other subnational geographies.",
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    Accuracy of nearly-extinct-cohort methods for estimating very elderly sub-national populations. / Terblanche, Wilma; Wilson, Thomas.

    In: International Journal of Population Research, Vol. 2015, 978186, 2015, p. 1-16.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearchpeer-review

    TY - JOUR

    T1 - Accuracy of nearly-extinct-cohort methods for estimating very elderly sub-national populations

    AU - Terblanche, Wilma

    AU - Wilson, Thomas

    PY - 2015

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    N2 - Increasing very elderly populations (ages 85+) have potentially major implications for the cost of income support, aged care, and healthcare. The availability of accurate estimates for this population age group, not only at a national level but also at a state or regional scale, is vital for policy development, budgeting, and planning for services. At the highest ages census-based population estimates are well known to be problematic and previous studies have demonstrated that more accurate estimates can be obtained indirectly from death data. This paper assesses indirect estimation methods for estimating state-level very elderly populations from death counts. A method for incorporating internal migration is also proposed. The results confirm that the accuracy of official estimates deteriorates rapidly with increasing age from 95 and that the survivor ratio method can be successfully applied at subnational level and internal migration is minor. It is shown that the simpler alternative of applying the survivor ratio method at a national level and apportioning the estimates between the states produces very accurate estimates for most states and years. This is the recommended method. While the methods are applied at a state level in Australia, the principles are generic and are applicable to other subnational geographies.

    AB - Increasing very elderly populations (ages 85+) have potentially major implications for the cost of income support, aged care, and healthcare. The availability of accurate estimates for this population age group, not only at a national level but also at a state or regional scale, is vital for policy development, budgeting, and planning for services. At the highest ages census-based population estimates are well known to be problematic and previous studies have demonstrated that more accurate estimates can be obtained indirectly from death data. This paper assesses indirect estimation methods for estimating state-level very elderly populations from death counts. A method for incorporating internal migration is also proposed. The results confirm that the accuracy of official estimates deteriorates rapidly with increasing age from 95 and that the survivor ratio method can be successfully applied at subnational level and internal migration is minor. It is shown that the simpler alternative of applying the survivor ratio method at a national level and apportioning the estimates between the states produces very accurate estimates for most states and years. This is the recommended method. While the methods are applied at a state level in Australia, the principles are generic and are applicable to other subnational geographies.

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