Are we missing opportunities to detect acute rheumatic fever and rheumatic heart disease in hospital care? A multijurisdictional cohort study

This study aimed to investigate potential missed diagnoses of acute rheumatic fever and rheumatic heart disease during hospital-based care among persons subsequently identified with these conditions. Methods. This retrospective cohort study used linked emergency department and inpatient administrative records from Queensland, Northern Territory, South Australia, and New South Wales during 2003–2018 (varying between jurisdictions by completeness of data) of all persons first identified with acute rheumatic fever or rheumatic heart disease while aged8–24 years. Using coded discharge diagnoses from the preceding 3 years, we identified presentations (e.g. joint pains or heart murmur without specific identified cause) that potentially mimic and thereby represent a missed opportunity to detect acute rheumatic fever or rheumatic heart disease. Sociodemographic factors associated with experiencing ≥1 mimic diagnoses were investigated using multivariable logistic regression models. Results. Among 1855 persons, 65 (3.5%)(using narrow diagnostic inclusions) and 146 (7.9%) (with broad inclusions) experienced ≥1 mimic diagnosis. Joint disorders predominated. Mimics categorised as ‘high-likelihood’ (most specific)were more frequent among persons subsequently diagnosed as young adults (18–24 years) than as children (8–12 years) (odds ratio [OR] 2.45, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.34–4.47), and those from low-risk ethnic groups (including Australian-born non-Indigenous persons) compared with Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples (OR 2.44, 95% CI 1.02–5.85). Conclusion. Missed opportunities to detect acute rheumatic fever and rheumatic heart disease continue to occur in Australian hospitals, and present disproportionately among persons from demographic groups considered to be at low risk, suggesting the need for enhanced clinical suspicion in these groups.