Climate change, the Australian Greens, and dynamics of party competition across five national elections in Australia

This study examines the impact of mainstream political parties’ strategies on the Australian Greens, a ‘niche party’ associated with the global warming issue. The Green vote rose between the 2004 and 2016 elections despite voters’ support for action on global warming declining. Meguid ([2008]. Party Competition Bbetween Unequals: Strategies and Electoral Fortunes in Western Europe. New York: Cambridge University Press) proposed that mainstream parties must decide whether to dismiss, accommodate, or oppose a new issue and niche party, predicting the impacts using the theory of ‘issues-based voting’. We use a time series of voting intention to test this theory. Mainstream party strategies had the predicted effects on the Greens vote. In the presence of a competitive niche party, mainstream parties’ strategies may respond to the dynamics of competition, beyond the traditionally considered institutional and economic forces.