TY - JOUR
T1 - Climate Variability and the Outbreaks of Cholera in Zanzibar, East Africa
T2 - A Time Series Analysis.
AU - Reyburn, Rita
AU - Kim, Deok Ryun
AU - Emch, Michael
AU - Khatib, Ahmed
AU - Von Seidlein, Lorenz
AU - Ali, Mohammad
PY - 2011
Y1 - 2011
N2 - Global cholera incidence is increasing, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. We examined the impact of climate and ocean environmental variability on cholera outbreaks, and developed a forecasting model for outbreaks in Zanzibar. Routine cholera surveillance reports between 1997 and 2006 were correlated with remotely and locally sensed environmental data. A seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model determined the impact of climate and environmental variability on cholera. The SARIMA model shows temporal clustering of cholera. A 1°C increase in temperature at 4 months lag resulted in a 2-fold increase of cholera cases, and an increase of 200 mm of rainfall at 2 months lag resulted in a 1.6-fold increase of cholera cases. Temperature and rainfall interaction yielded a significantly positive association (P < 0.04) with cholera at a 1-month lag. These results may be applied to forecast cholera outbreaks, and guide public health resources in controlling cholera in Zanzibar.
AB - Global cholera incidence is increasing, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. We examined the impact of climate and ocean environmental variability on cholera outbreaks, and developed a forecasting model for outbreaks in Zanzibar. Routine cholera surveillance reports between 1997 and 2006 were correlated with remotely and locally sensed environmental data. A seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model determined the impact of climate and environmental variability on cholera. The SARIMA model shows temporal clustering of cholera. A 1°C increase in temperature at 4 months lag resulted in a 2-fold increase of cholera cases, and an increase of 200 mm of rainfall at 2 months lag resulted in a 1.6-fold increase of cholera cases. Temperature and rainfall interaction yielded a significantly positive association (P < 0.04) with cholera at a 1-month lag. These results may be applied to forecast cholera outbreaks, and guide public health resources in controlling cholera in Zanzibar.
U2 - 10.4269/ajtmh.2011.10-0277
DO - 10.4269/ajtmh.2011.10-0277
M3 - Article
VL - 84
SP - 862
EP - 869
JO - The American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene
JF - The American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene
SN - 0002-9637
IS - 6
ER -