Closing the Gap on Indigenous Life Expectancies: What if we succeed?

RESEARCH AIM:
To model the demographic impacts of success in closing the gap on Indigenous life expectancies within a generation.

This research brief uses population projections modelling to compare and contrast demographic outcomes from varying future Indigenous life expectancies in the Northern Territory, including the scenario of success in the COAG target of ‘closing the gap’ within a generation.

The research has been conducted by Andrew Taylor a
nd may not be reproduced without
permission or attribution.

KEY FINDINGS:
Success in closing the gap will not add dramatically to the total Indigenous population of the NT, but will substantially alter Indigenous age-sex compositions.

For both males and females, the projected increase in the population aged over 60 years is significant in absolute and percentage terms, growing by 281 percent under success in closing the gap, by 235 per cent if current life expectancy trends persist, and by 193 per cent if life expectancies remain at 2010 estimates.

While age dependency ratios will increase over time, economic dependency ratios will fall initially before increasing significantly as total fertility rates decline over time.

We can expect the pace of changes in Indigenous life expectancies to vary greatly across space and time.