Abstract
Introduction: The costs of global warming are substantial. These include expenses from occupational illnesses and injuries (OIIs), which have been associated with increases during heatwaves. This study estimated retrospective and projected future heatwave-attributable OIIs and their costs in Australia.
Materials and methods: Climate and workers’ compensation claims data were extracted from seven Australian capital cities representing OIIs from July 2005 to June 2018. Heatwaves were defined using the Excess Heat Factor. OIIs and associated costs were estimated separately per city and pooled to derive national estimates. Results were projected to 2030 (2016–2045) and 2050 (2036–2065).
Results: The risk of OIIs and associated costs increased during heatwaves, with the risk increasing during severe and particularly extreme heatwaves. Of all OIIs, 0.13% (95% empirical confidence interval [eCI]: 0.11–0.16%) were heatwave-attributable, equivalent to 120 (95%eCI:70–181) OIIs annually. 0.25% of costs were heatwave-attributable (95%eCI: 0.18–0.34%), equal to $AU4.3 (95%eCI: 1.4–7.4) million annually. Estimates of heatwave-attributable OIIs by 2050, under Representative Concentration Pathway [RCP]4.5 and RCP8.5, were 0.17% (95%eCI: 0.10–0.27%) and 0.23% (95%eCI: 0.13–0.37%), respectively. National costs estimates for 2030 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 were 0.13% (95%eCI: 0.27-0.46%) and 0.04% (95%eCI: 0.66-0.60), respectively. These estimates for extreme heatwaves were 0.04% (95%eCI: 0.02–0.06%) and 0.04% (95%eCI: 0.01–0.07), respectively. Cost-AFs in 2050 were, under RCP4.5, 0.127% (95%eCI: 0.27-0.46) for all heatwaves and 0.04% (95%eCI: 0.01-0.09%) for extreme heatwaves. Attributable fractions were approximately similar to baseline when assuming theoretical climate adaptation.
Discussion: Heatwaves represent notable and preventable portions of preventable OIIs and economic burden. OIIs are likely to increase in the future, and costs during extreme heatwaves in 2030. Workplace and public health policies aimed at heat adaptation can reduce heat-attributable morbidity and costs.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Article number | 116852 |
| Pages (from-to) | 1-15 |
| Number of pages | 15 |
| Journal | Environmental Research |
| Volume | 236 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - 1 Nov 2023 |
Bibliographical note
Funding Information:This project was supported by the Australian Research Council (ARC Discovery Project Grant: DP190102869). Author Matthew Borg was supported by a University of Adelaide Faculty of Health Sciences Divisional Scholarship.The authors thank Dr John Nairn, Professor Lisa Alexander, Syeda Hira Fatima, and A/Prof Peter Smith for their advice with utilizing EHF, advice for usage of projected climate data, assistance with spatial analysis, and for providing their ANZSCO-NOC cross-walk version for cross-checking, respectively. This publication uses workers' compensation claims data supplied by Safe Work Australia and has been compiled in collaboration with state, territory and Commonwealth workers' compensation regulators. The views expressed are the responsibility of the authors and are not necessarily the views of Safe Work Australia or the state, territory and Commonwealth workers' compensation regulators. The authors acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme's Working Group on Coupled Modeling, which is responsible for CMIP, and we thank the climate modeling groups (listed at https://www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au/en/obtain-data/application-ready-data/eight-climate-models-data/) for producing and making available their model output for projected climate data. For CMIP the U.S. Department of Energy's Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison provides coordinating support and led development of software infrastructure in partnership with the Global Organization for Earth System Science Portals. This project was supported by the Australian Research Council (ARC Discovery Project Grant: DP190102869). Author Matthew Borg was supported by a University of Adelaide Faculty of Health Sciences Divisional Scholarship.
Funding Information:
This project was supported by the Australian Research Council (ARC Discovery Project Grant: DP190102869). Author Matthew Borg was supported by a University of Adelaide Faculty of Health Sciences Divisional Scholarship.
Funding Information:
This project was supported by the Australian Research Council (ARC Discovery Project Grant: DP190102869 ). Author Matthew Borg was supported by a University of Adelaide Faculty of Health Sciences Divisional Scholarship.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2023 The Authors
