TY - JOUR
T1 - Differences and congruencies between PVA packages
T2 - the importance of sex ratio for predictions of extinction risk
AU - Brook, Barry
AU - Burgman, M. A.
AU - Frankham, Richard
PY - 2000
Y1 - 2000
N2 - Population viability analysis (PVA) is used in conservation biology to predict extinction probabilities for threatened species. Previous studies have revealed large differences between the predictions of PVA modeling packages, but these comparisons included a range of nonstandard factors. A standardized comparison of five PVA packages (GAPPS, INMAT, RAMAS Metapop, RAMAS Stage, and VORTEX) was conducted on six examples (two mammals, tow birds, one reptile, and a hypothetical bird/mammal-like life history). The individual-based packages (GAPPS and VORTEX) predicted a consistently higher risk of extinction than their matrix-based counterparts (INMAT and the RAMAS programs). This arose as only the former considered the effect of demographic stochasticity in the sex ratio. The difference was eliminated when only females were modeled in the matrix-based PVA packages.
AB - Population viability analysis (PVA) is used in conservation biology to predict extinction probabilities for threatened species. Previous studies have revealed large differences between the predictions of PVA modeling packages, but these comparisons included a range of nonstandard factors. A standardized comparison of five PVA packages (GAPPS, INMAT, RAMAS Metapop, RAMAS Stage, and VORTEX) was conducted on six examples (two mammals, tow birds, one reptile, and a hypothetical bird/mammal-like life history). The individual-based packages (GAPPS and VORTEX) predicted a consistently higher risk of extinction than their matrix-based counterparts (INMAT and the RAMAS programs). This arose as only the former considered the effect of demographic stochasticity in the sex ratio. The difference was eliminated when only females were modeled in the matrix-based PVA packages.
KW - demographic stochasticity
KW - extinction risk
KW - individual-based models
KW - matrix-based models
KW - model comparison
KW - parameter estimation
KW - population viability analysis
KW - sex ratio
KW - conservation
KW - wolves
KW - alex
M3 - Comment/debate
VL - 4
SP - 6-
JO - Conservation Ecology
JF - Conservation Ecology
SN - 1195-5449
IS - 1
ER -