Differences and congruencies between PVA packages: the importance of sex ratio for predictions of extinction risk

Barry Brook; M. A. Burgman; Richard Frankham

Differences and congruencies between PVA packages: the importance of sex ratio for predictions of extinction risk

Barry Brook, M. A. Burgman, Richard Frankham

Research output: Contribution to journal › Comment/debate

Abstract

Population viability analysis (PVA) is used in conservation biology to predict extinction probabilities for threatened species. Previous studies have revealed large differences between the predictions of PVA modeling packages, but these comparisons included a range of nonstandard factors. A standardized comparison of five PVA packages (GAPPS, INMAT, RAMAS Metapop, RAMAS Stage, and VORTEX) was conducted on six examples (two mammals, tow birds, one reptile, and a hypothetical bird/mammal-like life history). The individual-based packages (GAPPS and VORTEX) predicted a consistently higher risk of extinction than their matrix-based counterparts (INMAT and the RAMAS programs). This arose as only the former considered the effect of demographic stochasticity in the sex ratio. The difference was eliminated when only females were modeled in the matrix-based PVA packages.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	6-
Number of pages	1
Journal	Conservation Ecology
Volume	4
Issue number	1
Publication status	Published - 2000

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title = "Differences and congruencies between PVA packages: the importance of sex ratio for predictions of extinction risk",

abstract = "Population viability analysis (PVA) is used in conservation biology to predict extinction probabilities for threatened species. Previous studies have revealed large differences between the predictions of PVA modeling packages, but these comparisons included a range of nonstandard factors. A standardized comparison of five PVA packages (GAPPS, INMAT, RAMAS Metapop, RAMAS Stage, and VORTEX) was conducted on six examples (two mammals, tow birds, one reptile, and a hypothetical bird/mammal-like life history). The individual-based packages (GAPPS and VORTEX) predicted a consistently higher risk of extinction than their matrix-based counterparts (INMAT and the RAMAS programs). This arose as only the former considered the effect of demographic stochasticity in the sex ratio. The difference was eliminated when only females were modeled in the matrix-based PVA packages.",

keywords = "demographic stochasticity, extinction risk, individual-based models, matrix-based models, model comparison, parameter estimation, population viability analysis, sex ratio, conservation, wolves, alex",

author = "Barry Brook and Burgman, {M. A.} and Richard Frankham",

year = "2000",

language = "English",

volume = "4",

pages = "6--",

journal = "Ecology and Society",

issn = "1195-5449",

publisher = "Resilience Alliance Publications",

number = "1",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Differences and congruencies between PVA packages

T2 - the importance of sex ratio for predictions of extinction risk

AU - Brook, Barry

AU - Burgman, M. A.

AU - Frankham, Richard

PY - 2000

Y1 - 2000

N2 - Population viability analysis (PVA) is used in conservation biology to predict extinction probabilities for threatened species. Previous studies have revealed large differences between the predictions of PVA modeling packages, but these comparisons included a range of nonstandard factors. A standardized comparison of five PVA packages (GAPPS, INMAT, RAMAS Metapop, RAMAS Stage, and VORTEX) was conducted on six examples (two mammals, tow birds, one reptile, and a hypothetical bird/mammal-like life history). The individual-based packages (GAPPS and VORTEX) predicted a consistently higher risk of extinction than their matrix-based counterparts (INMAT and the RAMAS programs). This arose as only the former considered the effect of demographic stochasticity in the sex ratio. The difference was eliminated when only females were modeled in the matrix-based PVA packages.

AB - Population viability analysis (PVA) is used in conservation biology to predict extinction probabilities for threatened species. Previous studies have revealed large differences between the predictions of PVA modeling packages, but these comparisons included a range of nonstandard factors. A standardized comparison of five PVA packages (GAPPS, INMAT, RAMAS Metapop, RAMAS Stage, and VORTEX) was conducted on six examples (two mammals, tow birds, one reptile, and a hypothetical bird/mammal-like life history). The individual-based packages (GAPPS and VORTEX) predicted a consistently higher risk of extinction than their matrix-based counterparts (INMAT and the RAMAS programs). This arose as only the former considered the effect of demographic stochasticity in the sex ratio. The difference was eliminated when only females were modeled in the matrix-based PVA packages.

KW - demographic stochasticity

KW - extinction risk

KW - individual-based models

KW - matrix-based models

KW - model comparison

KW - parameter estimation

KW - population viability analysis

KW - sex ratio

KW - conservation

KW - wolves

KW - alex

M3 - Comment/debate

VL - 4

SP - 6-

JO - Ecology and Society

JF - Ecology and Society

SN - 1195-5449

IS - 1

ER -

Differences and congruencies between PVA packages: the importance of sex ratio for predictions of extinction risk

Abstract

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