Fire-sensitive and threatened plants in the Upper Paraguay River Basin, Brazil: Identifying priority areas for Integrated Fire Management and ecological restoration

Extreme wildfires present an ever-increasing problem in different landscapes around the world. Here, we explore recent wildfires to prioritize recovery efforts and mitigate effects of future wildfires in the Pantanal, the largest continuous wetland in the world. Using ecological niche modeling (ENM), we categorize affected areas based on potential levels of degradation by fire and the predicted suitability for threatened and fire-sensitive plants. Based on this information, we identify key areas for fire prevention. Under land cover change scenarios predicted for 2050, approximately 25 % of the land cover under future threat will have potentially high biomass accumulation. We identified 1272 km² in priority areas with forest formation, with restoration cost of at least US$ 576,189. This case study provides an analysis workflow that can be used to assess other wildfire-threatened parts of the world. These results can inform public policy to establish new fire brigades, conservation efforts using Integrated Fire Management, and restoration areas to mitigate biodiversity loss.