Heptathlon: Which is the best predictor of total points?

The heptathlon event is conducted over two consecutive days and conducted in the flowing order. Day 1, the 100m hurdles, high jump, shot put and 200m. Day 2, the long jump, javelin throw and 800m. The individual event performances are converted to points using IAAF heptathlon scoring tables and then these points are summed to assess rank performance and award athlete overall event place. The multivariate statistical methods of structural equation modelling (Heazlewood, 2011) and factor analysis (Heazlewood, 2008) have been applied to understand the statistical interrelationships between the seven events, however the importance of each event and sets of events that contribute to and predict the total points require further investigation as research thus far has not addressed this research question. The data base to derive the regression solutions were based on the International Association of Athletic Federations (abbreviated as IAAF) top ranked 173 women heptathletes for the 2010 competition year (IAAF, 2010). The results indicated the long jump and shot put predict a significant 59% of the explained variance. A three event model with the inclusion of the 100m hurdles adds an additional 11.7% making 70.7 % explained variance. The additional events of high jump, javelin, 800m and 200m contribute 27% to 97.7%. Al events contribute significantly as the final points are a linear additive score. The significant events predicting total points were long jump, shot put and 100m hurdles suggesting additional training focussed on these events will contribute to total points achieved in the women's heptathlon.