Mapping the global endemicity and clinical burden of Plasmodium vivax, 2000–17

a spatial and temporal modelling study

Katherine E. Battle, Tim C.D. Lucas, Michele Nguyen, Rosalind E. Howes, Anita K. Nandi, Katherine A. Twohig, Daniel A. Pfeffer, Ewan Cameron, Puja C. Rao, Daniel Casey, Harry S. Gibson, Jennifer A. Rozier, Ursula Dalrymple, Suzanne H. Keddie, Emma L. Collins, Joseph R. Harris, Carlos A. Guerra, Michael P. Thorn, D. Bisanzio, N. Fullman & 19 others Chantal K. Huynh, Xie Kulikoff, Michael J. Kutz, Alan D. Lopez, A. H. Mokdad, Mohsen Naghavi, G. Nguyen, Katya Anne Shackelford, Theo Vos, Haidong Wang, Stephen S. Lim, Christopher J.L. Murray, R. N. Price, J. Kevin Baird, David L. Smith, S. Bhatt, Daniel J. Weiss, Simon I. Hay, Peter W. Gething

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearchpeer-review

    Abstract

    Background: Plasmodium vivax exacts a significant toll on health worldwide, yet few efforts to date have quantified the extent and temporal trends of its global distribution. Given the challenges associated with the proper diagnosis and treatment of P vivax, national malaria programmes—particularly those pursuing malaria elimination strategies—require up to date assessments of P vivax endemicity and disease impact. This study presents the first global maps of P vivax clinical burden from 2000 to 2017.

    Methods: In this spatial and temporal modelling study, we adjusted routine malariometric surveillance data for known biases and used socioeconomic indicators to generate time series of the clinical burden of P vivax. These data informed Bayesian geospatial models, which produced fine-scale predictions of P vivax clinical incidence and infection prevalence over time. Within sub-Saharan Africa, where routine surveillance for P vivax is not standard practice, we combined predicted surfaces of Plasmodium falciparum with country-specific ratios of P vivax to P falciparum. These results were combined with surveillance-based outputs outside of Africa to generate global maps.

    Findings: We present the first high-resolution maps of P vivax burden. These results are combined with those for P falciparum (published separately) to form the malaria estimates for the Global Burden of Disease 2017 study. The burden of P vivax malaria decreased by 41·6%, from 24·5 million cases (95% uncertainty interval 22·5–27·0) in 2000 to 14·3 million cases (13·7–15·0) in 2017. The Americas had a reduction of 56·8% (47·6–67·0) in total cases since 2000, while South-East Asia recorded declines of 50·5% (50·3–50·6) and the Western Pacific regions recorded declines of 51·3% (48·0–55·4). Europe achieved zero P vivax cases during the study period. Nonetheless, rates of decline have stalled in the past five years for many countries, with particular increases noted in regions affected by political and economic instability. Interpretation: Our study highlights important spatial and temporal patterns in the clinical burden and prevalence of P vivax. Amid substantial progress worldwide, plateauing gains and areas of increased burden signal the potential for challenges that are greater than expected on the road to malaria elimination. These results support global monitoring systems and can inform the optimisation of diagnosis and treatment where P vivax has most impact.

    Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the Wellcome Trust.

    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)332-343
    Number of pages12
    JournalThe Lancet
    Volume394
    Issue number10195
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 27 Jul 2019

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    Plasmodium vivax
    Vivax Malaria
    Malaria
    Far East
    Africa South of the Sahara
    Plasmodium falciparum
    Uncertainty
    Economics
    Incidence
    Infection

    Cite this

    Battle, K. E., Lucas, T. C. D., Nguyen, M., Howes, R. E., Nandi, A. K., Twohig, K. A., ... Gething, P. W. (2019). Mapping the global endemicity and clinical burden of Plasmodium vivax, 2000–17: a spatial and temporal modelling study. The Lancet, 394(10195), 332-343. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(19)31096-7
    Battle, Katherine E. ; Lucas, Tim C.D. ; Nguyen, Michele ; Howes, Rosalind E. ; Nandi, Anita K. ; Twohig, Katherine A. ; Pfeffer, Daniel A. ; Cameron, Ewan ; Rao, Puja C. ; Casey, Daniel ; Gibson, Harry S. ; Rozier, Jennifer A. ; Dalrymple, Ursula ; Keddie, Suzanne H. ; Collins, Emma L. ; Harris, Joseph R. ; Guerra, Carlos A. ; Thorn, Michael P. ; Bisanzio, D. ; Fullman, N. ; Huynh, Chantal K. ; Kulikoff, Xie ; Kutz, Michael J. ; Lopez, Alan D. ; Mokdad, A. H. ; Naghavi, Mohsen ; Nguyen, G. ; Shackelford, Katya Anne ; Vos, Theo ; Wang, Haidong ; Lim, Stephen S. ; Murray, Christopher J.L. ; Price, R. N. ; Baird, J. Kevin ; Smith, David L. ; Bhatt, S. ; Weiss, Daniel J. ; Hay, Simon I. ; Gething, Peter W. / Mapping the global endemicity and clinical burden of Plasmodium vivax, 2000–17 : a spatial and temporal modelling study. In: The Lancet. 2019 ; Vol. 394, No. 10195. pp. 332-343.
    @article{05f2a69800d041b8935067ac435c7bde,
    title = "Mapping the global endemicity and clinical burden of Plasmodium vivax, 2000–17: a spatial and temporal modelling study",
    abstract = "Background: Plasmodium vivax exacts a significant toll on health worldwide, yet few efforts to date have quantified the extent and temporal trends of its global distribution. Given the challenges associated with the proper diagnosis and treatment of P vivax, national malaria programmes—particularly those pursuing malaria elimination strategies—require up to date assessments of P vivax endemicity and disease impact. This study presents the first global maps of P vivax clinical burden from 2000 to 2017. Methods: In this spatial and temporal modelling study, we adjusted routine malariometric surveillance data for known biases and used socioeconomic indicators to generate time series of the clinical burden of P vivax. These data informed Bayesian geospatial models, which produced fine-scale predictions of P vivax clinical incidence and infection prevalence over time. Within sub-Saharan Africa, where routine surveillance for P vivax is not standard practice, we combined predicted surfaces of Plasmodium falciparum with country-specific ratios of P vivax to P falciparum. These results were combined with surveillance-based outputs outside of Africa to generate global maps. Findings: We present the first high-resolution maps of P vivax burden. These results are combined with those for P falciparum (published separately) to form the malaria estimates for the Global Burden of Disease 2017 study. The burden of P vivax malaria decreased by 41·6{\%}, from 24·5 million cases (95{\%} uncertainty interval 22·5–27·0) in 2000 to 14·3 million cases (13·7–15·0) in 2017. The Americas had a reduction of 56·8{\%} (47·6–67·0) in total cases since 2000, while South-East Asia recorded declines of 50·5{\%} (50·3–50·6) and the Western Pacific regions recorded declines of 51·3{\%} (48·0–55·4). Europe achieved zero P vivax cases during the study period. Nonetheless, rates of decline have stalled in the past five years for many countries, with particular increases noted in regions affected by political and economic instability. Interpretation: Our study highlights important spatial and temporal patterns in the clinical burden and prevalence of P vivax. Amid substantial progress worldwide, plateauing gains and areas of increased burden signal the potential for challenges that are greater than expected on the road to malaria elimination. These results support global monitoring systems and can inform the optimisation of diagnosis and treatment where P vivax has most impact. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the Wellcome Trust.",
    author = "Battle, {Katherine E.} and Lucas, {Tim C.D.} and Michele Nguyen and Howes, {Rosalind E.} and Nandi, {Anita K.} and Twohig, {Katherine A.} and Pfeffer, {Daniel A.} and Ewan Cameron and Rao, {Puja C.} and Daniel Casey and Gibson, {Harry S.} and Rozier, {Jennifer A.} and Ursula Dalrymple and Keddie, {Suzanne H.} and Collins, {Emma L.} and Harris, {Joseph R.} and Guerra, {Carlos A.} and Thorn, {Michael P.} and D. Bisanzio and N. Fullman and Huynh, {Chantal K.} and Xie Kulikoff and Kutz, {Michael J.} and Lopez, {Alan D.} and Mokdad, {A. H.} and Mohsen Naghavi and G. Nguyen and Shackelford, {Katya Anne} and Theo Vos and Haidong Wang and Lim, {Stephen S.} and Murray, {Christopher J.L.} and Price, {R. N.} and Baird, {J. Kevin} and Smith, {David L.} and S. Bhatt and Weiss, {Daniel J.} and Hay, {Simon I.} and Gething, {Peter W.}",
    year = "2019",
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    language = "English",
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    Battle, KE, Lucas, TCD, Nguyen, M, Howes, RE, Nandi, AK, Twohig, KA, Pfeffer, DA, Cameron, E, Rao, PC, Casey, D, Gibson, HS, Rozier, JA, Dalrymple, U, Keddie, SH, Collins, EL, Harris, JR, Guerra, CA, Thorn, MP, Bisanzio, D, Fullman, N, Huynh, CK, Kulikoff, X, Kutz, MJ, Lopez, AD, Mokdad, AH, Naghavi, M, Nguyen, G, Shackelford, KA, Vos, T, Wang, H, Lim, SS, Murray, CJL, Price, RN, Baird, JK, Smith, DL, Bhatt, S, Weiss, DJ, Hay, SI & Gething, PW 2019, 'Mapping the global endemicity and clinical burden of Plasmodium vivax, 2000–17: a spatial and temporal modelling study', The Lancet, vol. 394, no. 10195, pp. 332-343. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(19)31096-7

    Mapping the global endemicity and clinical burden of Plasmodium vivax, 2000–17 : a spatial and temporal modelling study. / Battle, Katherine E.; Lucas, Tim C.D.; Nguyen, Michele; Howes, Rosalind E.; Nandi, Anita K.; Twohig, Katherine A.; Pfeffer, Daniel A.; Cameron, Ewan; Rao, Puja C.; Casey, Daniel; Gibson, Harry S.; Rozier, Jennifer A.; Dalrymple, Ursula; Keddie, Suzanne H.; Collins, Emma L.; Harris, Joseph R.; Guerra, Carlos A.; Thorn, Michael P.; Bisanzio, D.; Fullman, N.; Huynh, Chantal K.; Kulikoff, Xie; Kutz, Michael J.; Lopez, Alan D.; Mokdad, A. H.; Naghavi, Mohsen; Nguyen, G.; Shackelford, Katya Anne; Vos, Theo; Wang, Haidong; Lim, Stephen S.; Murray, Christopher J.L.; Price, R. N.; Baird, J. Kevin; Smith, David L.; Bhatt, S.; Weiss, Daniel J.; Hay, Simon I.; Gething, Peter W.

    In: The Lancet, Vol. 394, No. 10195, 27.07.2019, p. 332-343.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearchpeer-review

    TY - JOUR

    T1 - Mapping the global endemicity and clinical burden of Plasmodium vivax, 2000–17

    T2 - a spatial and temporal modelling study

    AU - Battle, Katherine E.

    AU - Lucas, Tim C.D.

    AU - Nguyen, Michele

    AU - Howes, Rosalind E.

    AU - Nandi, Anita K.

    AU - Twohig, Katherine A.

    AU - Pfeffer, Daniel A.

    AU - Cameron, Ewan

    AU - Rao, Puja C.

    AU - Casey, Daniel

    AU - Gibson, Harry S.

    AU - Rozier, Jennifer A.

    AU - Dalrymple, Ursula

    AU - Keddie, Suzanne H.

    AU - Collins, Emma L.

    AU - Harris, Joseph R.

    AU - Guerra, Carlos A.

    AU - Thorn, Michael P.

    AU - Bisanzio, D.

    AU - Fullman, N.

    AU - Huynh, Chantal K.

    AU - Kulikoff, Xie

    AU - Kutz, Michael J.

    AU - Lopez, Alan D.

    AU - Mokdad, A. H.

    AU - Naghavi, Mohsen

    AU - Nguyen, G.

    AU - Shackelford, Katya Anne

    AU - Vos, Theo

    AU - Wang, Haidong

    AU - Lim, Stephen S.

    AU - Murray, Christopher J.L.

    AU - Price, R. N.

    AU - Baird, J. Kevin

    AU - Smith, David L.

    AU - Bhatt, S.

    AU - Weiss, Daniel J.

    AU - Hay, Simon I.

    AU - Gething, Peter W.

    PY - 2019/7/27

    Y1 - 2019/7/27

    N2 - Background: Plasmodium vivax exacts a significant toll on health worldwide, yet few efforts to date have quantified the extent and temporal trends of its global distribution. Given the challenges associated with the proper diagnosis and treatment of P vivax, national malaria programmes—particularly those pursuing malaria elimination strategies—require up to date assessments of P vivax endemicity and disease impact. This study presents the first global maps of P vivax clinical burden from 2000 to 2017. Methods: In this spatial and temporal modelling study, we adjusted routine malariometric surveillance data for known biases and used socioeconomic indicators to generate time series of the clinical burden of P vivax. These data informed Bayesian geospatial models, which produced fine-scale predictions of P vivax clinical incidence and infection prevalence over time. Within sub-Saharan Africa, where routine surveillance for P vivax is not standard practice, we combined predicted surfaces of Plasmodium falciparum with country-specific ratios of P vivax to P falciparum. These results were combined with surveillance-based outputs outside of Africa to generate global maps. Findings: We present the first high-resolution maps of P vivax burden. These results are combined with those for P falciparum (published separately) to form the malaria estimates for the Global Burden of Disease 2017 study. The burden of P vivax malaria decreased by 41·6%, from 24·5 million cases (95% uncertainty interval 22·5–27·0) in 2000 to 14·3 million cases (13·7–15·0) in 2017. The Americas had a reduction of 56·8% (47·6–67·0) in total cases since 2000, while South-East Asia recorded declines of 50·5% (50·3–50·6) and the Western Pacific regions recorded declines of 51·3% (48·0–55·4). Europe achieved zero P vivax cases during the study period. Nonetheless, rates of decline have stalled in the past five years for many countries, with particular increases noted in regions affected by political and economic instability. Interpretation: Our study highlights important spatial and temporal patterns in the clinical burden and prevalence of P vivax. Amid substantial progress worldwide, plateauing gains and areas of increased burden signal the potential for challenges that are greater than expected on the road to malaria elimination. These results support global monitoring systems and can inform the optimisation of diagnosis and treatment where P vivax has most impact. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the Wellcome Trust.

    AB - Background: Plasmodium vivax exacts a significant toll on health worldwide, yet few efforts to date have quantified the extent and temporal trends of its global distribution. Given the challenges associated with the proper diagnosis and treatment of P vivax, national malaria programmes—particularly those pursuing malaria elimination strategies—require up to date assessments of P vivax endemicity and disease impact. This study presents the first global maps of P vivax clinical burden from 2000 to 2017. Methods: In this spatial and temporal modelling study, we adjusted routine malariometric surveillance data for known biases and used socioeconomic indicators to generate time series of the clinical burden of P vivax. These data informed Bayesian geospatial models, which produced fine-scale predictions of P vivax clinical incidence and infection prevalence over time. Within sub-Saharan Africa, where routine surveillance for P vivax is not standard practice, we combined predicted surfaces of Plasmodium falciparum with country-specific ratios of P vivax to P falciparum. These results were combined with surveillance-based outputs outside of Africa to generate global maps. Findings: We present the first high-resolution maps of P vivax burden. These results are combined with those for P falciparum (published separately) to form the malaria estimates for the Global Burden of Disease 2017 study. The burden of P vivax malaria decreased by 41·6%, from 24·5 million cases (95% uncertainty interval 22·5–27·0) in 2000 to 14·3 million cases (13·7–15·0) in 2017. The Americas had a reduction of 56·8% (47·6–67·0) in total cases since 2000, while South-East Asia recorded declines of 50·5% (50·3–50·6) and the Western Pacific regions recorded declines of 51·3% (48·0–55·4). Europe achieved zero P vivax cases during the study period. Nonetheless, rates of decline have stalled in the past five years for many countries, with particular increases noted in regions affected by political and economic instability. Interpretation: Our study highlights important spatial and temporal patterns in the clinical burden and prevalence of P vivax. Amid substantial progress worldwide, plateauing gains and areas of increased burden signal the potential for challenges that are greater than expected on the road to malaria elimination. These results support global monitoring systems and can inform the optimisation of diagnosis and treatment where P vivax has most impact. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the Wellcome Trust.

    UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85069656234&partnerID=8YFLogxK

    U2 - 10.1016/S0140-6736(19)31096-7

    DO - 10.1016/S0140-6736(19)31096-7

    M3 - Article

    VL - 394

    SP - 332

    EP - 343

    JO - Lancet

    JF - Lancet

    SN - 0140-6736

    IS - 10195

    ER -