Minimum viable population sizes and global extinction risk are unrelated

B BROOK, L Traill, Corey Bradshaw

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearchpeer-review

    Abstract

    Theoretical and empirical work has shown that once reduced in size and geographical range, species face a considerably elevated risk of extinction. We predict minimum viable population sizes (MVP) for 1198 species based on long-term time-series data and model-averaged population dynamics simulations. The median MVP estimate was 1377 individuals (90% probability of persistence over 100 years) but the overall distribution was wide and strongly positively skewed. Factors commonly cited as correlating with extinction risk failed to predict MVP but were able to predict successfully the probability of World Conservation Union Listing. MVPs were most strongly related to local environmental variation rather than a species' intrinsic ecological and life history attributes. Further, the large variation in MVP across species is unrelated to (or at least dwarfed by) the anthropogenic threats that drive the global biodiversity crisis by causing once-abundant species to decline. � 2006 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.
    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)375-382
    Number of pages8
    JournalEcology Letters
    Volume9
    Issue number4
    Publication statusPublished - 2006

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    minimum viable population
    extinction risk
    population size
    extinction
    time series analysis
    population dynamics
    life history
    biodiversity
    persistence
    time series
    simulation

    Cite this

    BROOK, B., Traill, L., & Bradshaw, C. (2006). Minimum viable population sizes and global extinction risk are unrelated. Ecology Letters, 9(4), 375-382.
    BROOK, B ; Traill, L ; Bradshaw, Corey. / Minimum viable population sizes and global extinction risk are unrelated. In: Ecology Letters. 2006 ; Vol. 9, No. 4. pp. 375-382.
    @article{b854b605cb694df5b41ee9729b5762c1,
    title = "Minimum viable population sizes and global extinction risk are unrelated",
    abstract = "Theoretical and empirical work has shown that once reduced in size and geographical range, species face a considerably elevated risk of extinction. We predict minimum viable population sizes (MVP) for 1198 species based on long-term time-series data and model-averaged population dynamics simulations. The median MVP estimate was 1377 individuals (90{\%} probability of persistence over 100 years) but the overall distribution was wide and strongly positively skewed. Factors commonly cited as correlating with extinction risk failed to predict MVP but were able to predict successfully the probability of World Conservation Union Listing. MVPs were most strongly related to local environmental variation rather than a species' intrinsic ecological and life history attributes. Further, the large variation in MVP across species is unrelated to (or at least dwarfed by) the anthropogenic threats that drive the global biodiversity crisis by causing once-abundant species to decline. � 2006 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.",
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    author = "B BROOK and L Traill and Corey Bradshaw",
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    language = "English",
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    BROOK, B, Traill, L & Bradshaw, C 2006, 'Minimum viable population sizes and global extinction risk are unrelated', Ecology Letters, vol. 9, no. 4, pp. 375-382.

    Minimum viable population sizes and global extinction risk are unrelated. / BROOK, B; Traill, L; Bradshaw, Corey.

    In: Ecology Letters, Vol. 9, No. 4, 2006, p. 375-382.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearchpeer-review

    TY - JOUR

    T1 - Minimum viable population sizes and global extinction risk are unrelated

    AU - BROOK, B

    AU - Traill, L

    AU - Bradshaw, Corey

    PY - 2006

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    N2 - Theoretical and empirical work has shown that once reduced in size and geographical range, species face a considerably elevated risk of extinction. We predict minimum viable population sizes (MVP) for 1198 species based on long-term time-series data and model-averaged population dynamics simulations. The median MVP estimate was 1377 individuals (90% probability of persistence over 100 years) but the overall distribution was wide and strongly positively skewed. Factors commonly cited as correlating with extinction risk failed to predict MVP but were able to predict successfully the probability of World Conservation Union Listing. MVPs were most strongly related to local environmental variation rather than a species' intrinsic ecological and life history attributes. Further, the large variation in MVP across species is unrelated to (or at least dwarfed by) the anthropogenic threats that drive the global biodiversity crisis by causing once-abundant species to decline. � 2006 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

    AB - Theoretical and empirical work has shown that once reduced in size and geographical range, species face a considerably elevated risk of extinction. We predict minimum viable population sizes (MVP) for 1198 species based on long-term time-series data and model-averaged population dynamics simulations. The median MVP estimate was 1377 individuals (90% probability of persistence over 100 years) but the overall distribution was wide and strongly positively skewed. Factors commonly cited as correlating with extinction risk failed to predict MVP but were able to predict successfully the probability of World Conservation Union Listing. MVPs were most strongly related to local environmental variation rather than a species' intrinsic ecological and life history attributes. Further, the large variation in MVP across species is unrelated to (or at least dwarfed by) the anthropogenic threats that drive the global biodiversity crisis by causing once-abundant species to decline. � 2006 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

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    KW - population density

    KW - population dynamics

    KW - risk factor

    KW - theoretical model

    KW - Animals

    KW - Biodiversity

    KW - Conservation of Natural Resources

    KW - Environmental Pollution

    KW - Models, Theoretical

    KW - Population Density

    KW - Population Dynamics

    KW - Risk Factors

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    JF - Ecology Letters

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