Modelling population retention in Australia’s Northern Territory – how do current forms of migration contribute to population turnover and retention?

James Thurmer, D. Carson, A. Taylor

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearchpeer-review

Abstract

In the past, population growth in Australia's Northern Territory, as in other peripheral parts of high-income countries, has been driven by internal labour migration and migration from outside of Australia. These have been contributing to the high population turnover experienced in peripheral areas. Since 2010, the Northern Territory has experienced low (and even negative) population growth, and public policy is currently focused on migration as a lever to reverse this trend. However, the extent to which the characteristics of migrants influence the potential for longer-term population growth is poorly understood. This paper uses a new method to analyse the contributions of various types of migrants to both population turnover and retention. Two major sets of findings emerge: First, the significance of separating newer in-migrants from longer-term residents when analysing migration patterns; and secondly, the contribution of age, gender, Indigenous status, international origin, wages and industry of employment to the Northern Territory's population turnover. The research suggests that current forms of migration favour people who are likely to stay for only short periods, and have high wage demands. The main policy inference is that long-term population growth will likely not eventuate unless new forms of migration can be stimulated.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1-18
Number of pages18
JournalAustralian Geographer
Early online date31 Oct 2019
DOIs
Publication statusE-pub ahead of print - 31 Oct 2019

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population modeling
turnover
population growth
migration
migrant
wage
labor migration
internal migration
gender
public policy
income
resident
industry
trend

Cite this

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abstract = "In the past, population growth in Australia's Northern Territory, as in other peripheral parts of high-income countries, has been driven by internal labour migration and migration from outside of Australia. These have been contributing to the high population turnover experienced in peripheral areas. Since 2010, the Northern Territory has experienced low (and even negative) population growth, and public policy is currently focused on migration as a lever to reverse this trend. However, the extent to which the characteristics of migrants influence the potential for longer-term population growth is poorly understood. This paper uses a new method to analyse the contributions of various types of migrants to both population turnover and retention. Two major sets of findings emerge: First, the significance of separating newer in-migrants from longer-term residents when analysing migration patterns; and secondly, the contribution of age, gender, Indigenous status, international origin, wages and industry of employment to the Northern Territory's population turnover. The research suggests that current forms of migration favour people who are likely to stay for only short periods, and have high wage demands. The main policy inference is that long-term population growth will likely not eventuate unless new forms of migration can be stimulated.",
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Modelling population retention in Australia’s Northern Territory – how do current forms of migration contribute to population turnover and retention? / Thurmer, James; Carson, D.; Taylor, A.

In: Australian Geographer, 31.10.2019, p. 1-18.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearchpeer-review

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