Modelling settlement futures

Techniques and challenges

Paul Peters, Andrew Taylor, Dean B. Carson, Andreas Koch

    Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingChapterResearchpeer-review

    8 Downloads (Pure)

    Abstract

    Limitations of secondary data collected by external agencies for examining demographic change in sparsely populated areas (SPAs) are well documented in this volume (especially Chapter 7) and elsewhere (for example, Taylor, 2011). Even robust data collections specifically designed to provide settlement level analysis, such as population censuses, present with a diversity of issues. Broadly, these pertain to enumeration issues, conceptual issues, collection issues, changes to collection methods over time, or simply unexplained events at individual settlements (Koch and Carson, 2012; Taylor et al., 2011). Without local knowledge of specific issues under these themes (should they exist), downstream analysis and the dissection of demographic change for settlements is obstructed by a lack of distinction between ‘real’ demographic shifts and those which simply represent the outcome of one or more of these influences. Alternatively, ‘black swan’ events (where the event – like a major shift in the sex ratio for a settlement over a short period of time) may be neither predicted nor traceable to known factors. Most often it is a combination of these, and often the precedent cause is relatively unclear, making the task of modelling time series and projecting future settlement level demographics a hefty challenge. There is value therefore in sourcing and utilising tacit knowledge and internally compiled (by settlement residents or organisations) datasets to inform modelling on the causes and consequences of demographic change for individual settlements, both past and future. Such knowledge is built up over...
    Original languageEnglish
    Title of host publicationSettlements at the edge
    Subtitle of host publicationRemote human settlements in developed nations
    EditorsAndrew Taylor, Dean B. Carson, Prescott C. Ensign, Lee Huskey, Rasmus O. Rasmussen, Gertrude Saxinger
    Place of PublicationUSA
    PublisherEdward Elgar Publishing
    Chapter12
    Pages270-290
    Number of pages21
    ISBN (Electronic)9781784711962
    ISBN (Print)9781784711955
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 30 Sep 2016

    Fingerprint

    population development
    event
    sex ratio
    cause
    time series
    census
    resident
    lack
    Values
    time

    Cite this

    Peters, P., Taylor, A., Carson, D. B., & Koch, A. (2016). Modelling settlement futures: Techniques and challenges. In A. Taylor, D. B. Carson, P. C. Ensign, L. Huskey, R. O. Rasmussen, & G. Saxinger (Eds.), Settlements at the edge: Remote human settlements in developed nations (pp. 270-290). USA: Edward Elgar Publishing. https://doi.org/10.4337/9781784711962.00020
    Peters, Paul ; Taylor, Andrew ; Carson, Dean B. ; Koch, Andreas. / Modelling settlement futures : Techniques and challenges. Settlements at the edge: Remote human settlements in developed nations . editor / Andrew Taylor ; Dean B. Carson ; Prescott C. Ensign ; Lee Huskey ; Rasmus O. Rasmussen ; Gertrude Saxinger. USA : Edward Elgar Publishing, 2016. pp. 270-290
    @inbook{fec1e9c25ba94952b968ca15c305282e,
    title = "Modelling settlement futures: Techniques and challenges",
    abstract = "Limitations of secondary data collected by external agencies for examining demographic change in sparsely populated areas (SPAs) are well documented in this volume (especially Chapter 7) and elsewhere (for example, Taylor, 2011). Even robust data collections specifically designed to provide settlement level analysis, such as population censuses, present with a diversity of issues. Broadly, these pertain to enumeration issues, conceptual issues, collection issues, changes to collection methods over time, or simply unexplained events at individual settlements (Koch and Carson, 2012; Taylor et al., 2011). Without local knowledge of specific issues under these themes (should they exist), downstream analysis and the dissection of demographic change for settlements is obstructed by a lack of distinction between ‘real’ demographic shifts and those which simply represent the outcome of one or more of these influences. Alternatively, ‘black swan’ events (where the event – like a major shift in the sex ratio for a settlement over a short period of time) may be neither predicted nor traceable to known factors. Most often it is a combination of these, and often the precedent cause is relatively unclear, making the task of modelling time series and projecting future settlement level demographics a hefty challenge. There is value therefore in sourcing and utilising tacit knowledge and internally compiled (by settlement residents or organisations) datasets to inform modelling on the causes and consequences of demographic change for individual settlements, both past and future. Such knowledge is built up over...",
    author = "Paul Peters and Andrew Taylor and Carson, {Dean B.} and Andreas Koch",
    year = "2016",
    month = "9",
    day = "30",
    doi = "10.4337/9781784711962.00020",
    language = "English",
    isbn = "9781784711955",
    pages = "270--290",
    editor = "Taylor, {Andrew } and Carson, {Dean B. } and Ensign, {Prescott C.} and Huskey, {Lee } and Rasmussen, {Rasmus O. } and Saxinger, {Gertrude }",
    booktitle = "Settlements at the edge",
    publisher = "Edward Elgar Publishing",
    address = "United Kingdom",

    }

    Peters, P, Taylor, A, Carson, DB & Koch, A 2016, Modelling settlement futures: Techniques and challenges. in A Taylor, DB Carson, PC Ensign, L Huskey, RO Rasmussen & G Saxinger (eds), Settlements at the edge: Remote human settlements in developed nations . Edward Elgar Publishing, USA, pp. 270-290. https://doi.org/10.4337/9781784711962.00020

    Modelling settlement futures : Techniques and challenges. / Peters, Paul; Taylor, Andrew; Carson, Dean B.; Koch, Andreas.

    Settlements at the edge: Remote human settlements in developed nations . ed. / Andrew Taylor; Dean B. Carson; Prescott C. Ensign; Lee Huskey; Rasmus O. Rasmussen; Gertrude Saxinger. USA : Edward Elgar Publishing, 2016. p. 270-290.

    Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingChapterResearchpeer-review

    TY - CHAP

    T1 - Modelling settlement futures

    T2 - Techniques and challenges

    AU - Peters, Paul

    AU - Taylor, Andrew

    AU - Carson, Dean B.

    AU - Koch, Andreas

    PY - 2016/9/30

    Y1 - 2016/9/30

    N2 - Limitations of secondary data collected by external agencies for examining demographic change in sparsely populated areas (SPAs) are well documented in this volume (especially Chapter 7) and elsewhere (for example, Taylor, 2011). Even robust data collections specifically designed to provide settlement level analysis, such as population censuses, present with a diversity of issues. Broadly, these pertain to enumeration issues, conceptual issues, collection issues, changes to collection methods over time, or simply unexplained events at individual settlements (Koch and Carson, 2012; Taylor et al., 2011). Without local knowledge of specific issues under these themes (should they exist), downstream analysis and the dissection of demographic change for settlements is obstructed by a lack of distinction between ‘real’ demographic shifts and those which simply represent the outcome of one or more of these influences. Alternatively, ‘black swan’ events (where the event – like a major shift in the sex ratio for a settlement over a short period of time) may be neither predicted nor traceable to known factors. Most often it is a combination of these, and often the precedent cause is relatively unclear, making the task of modelling time series and projecting future settlement level demographics a hefty challenge. There is value therefore in sourcing and utilising tacit knowledge and internally compiled (by settlement residents or organisations) datasets to inform modelling on the causes and consequences of demographic change for individual settlements, both past and future. Such knowledge is built up over...

    AB - Limitations of secondary data collected by external agencies for examining demographic change in sparsely populated areas (SPAs) are well documented in this volume (especially Chapter 7) and elsewhere (for example, Taylor, 2011). Even robust data collections specifically designed to provide settlement level analysis, such as population censuses, present with a diversity of issues. Broadly, these pertain to enumeration issues, conceptual issues, collection issues, changes to collection methods over time, or simply unexplained events at individual settlements (Koch and Carson, 2012; Taylor et al., 2011). Without local knowledge of specific issues under these themes (should they exist), downstream analysis and the dissection of demographic change for settlements is obstructed by a lack of distinction between ‘real’ demographic shifts and those which simply represent the outcome of one or more of these influences. Alternatively, ‘black swan’ events (where the event – like a major shift in the sex ratio for a settlement over a short period of time) may be neither predicted nor traceable to known factors. Most often it is a combination of these, and often the precedent cause is relatively unclear, making the task of modelling time series and projecting future settlement level demographics a hefty challenge. There is value therefore in sourcing and utilising tacit knowledge and internally compiled (by settlement residents or organisations) datasets to inform modelling on the causes and consequences of demographic change for individual settlements, both past and future. Such knowledge is built up over...

    UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85016354579&partnerID=8YFLogxK

    U2 - 10.4337/9781784711962.00020

    DO - 10.4337/9781784711962.00020

    M3 - Chapter

    SN - 9781784711955

    SP - 270

    EP - 290

    BT - Settlements at the edge

    A2 - Taylor, Andrew

    A2 - Carson, Dean B.

    A2 - Ensign, Prescott C.

    A2 - Huskey, Lee

    A2 - Rasmussen, Rasmus O.

    A2 - Saxinger, Gertrude

    PB - Edward Elgar Publishing

    CY - USA

    ER -

    Peters P, Taylor A, Carson DB, Koch A. Modelling settlement futures: Techniques and challenges. In Taylor A, Carson DB, Ensign PC, Huskey L, Rasmussen RO, Saxinger G, editors, Settlements at the edge: Remote human settlements in developed nations . USA: Edward Elgar Publishing. 2016. p. 270-290 https://doi.org/10.4337/9781784711962.00020