Natural streamflow reconstruction and quantification of hydrological drought in the Soan River basin, Pakistan

Muhammad Laraib, Mudassar Iqbal, Muhammad Waseem, Abu Bakar Arshed, Umar Sultan, Hayat Ullah Khan, Awais Rahman, Khawar Abbas, Muhammad Ayub Shah, Samra Javaid, Muhammad Atiq Ur Rehman Tariq

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    1 Citation (Scopus)
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    Abstract

    Climate change and rapid socioeconomic development have exacerbated the damage caused by hydrological droughts. To ensure effective drought defense and infrastructure development, it is essential to investigate variations in hydrological droughts. The primary objective of this study is to reconstruct the natural streamflow by using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological modeling. The hydrological drought at different time scales (1, 3, 6, and 12 months) were measured using the streamflow drought index (SDI). The statistical parameters, including Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency and the Coefficient of Determination, which yielded values of 0.84 and 0.82 during the calibration period and 0.78 and 0.76 during the validation period, respectively, showed a satisfactory SWAT model performance. Additionally, the Pettit test was used to identify a change point in streamflow within the 1991–2015 timeframe, leading to the division of the study period into two distinct phases: an undisturbed period (1991–1998) and a disturbed period (1999–2015). The SDI index-based analysis revealed 9.39% moderate drought and 3.13% severe drought during the undisturbed period, while 11.76% moderate drought and 7.35% severe drought may happen due to the human influences that occurred in the disturbed period. These findings enhance the understanding of the hydrological drought variations in the Soan River basin for optimizing the water resources management system and effectively preventing and mitigating drought-related damages.

    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)741-754
    Number of pages14
    JournalJournal of the American Water Resources Association
    Volume60
    Issue number3
    Early online date2024
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - Jun 2024

    Bibliographical note

    Publisher Copyright:
    © 2024 The Authors. Journal of the American Water Resources Association published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Water Resources Association.

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