Abstract
Background: Knowing how many people there are likely to be, and their characteristics and location, is important in anticipating the demand for a wide range of both public and private sector goods and services.
Aims: This paper provides a brief overview of recent demographic trends in the Northern Territory, and then presents six scenarios for the future under alternative social, economic, political and demographic circumstances.
Data and methods: Population projections were prepared using a state-of-the-art projection model. The six scenarios differ in their future migration assumptions given that migration is the most variable and uncertain demographic
variable affecting the Territory’s population.
Results: The future of the Territory’s total population is very uncertain and may be anywhere between 250,000 and 500,000 by mid-century. However, some aspects of the Territory’s future demography (such as continued population ageing) are much more certain.
Conclusions: Population forecasts for the NT are useful for the short-term, but beyond that, scenarios and prediction intervals which indicate uncertainty have to be used. Flexible planning is required to accommodate uncertainty about the demographic future.
Aims: This paper provides a brief overview of recent demographic trends in the Northern Territory, and then presents six scenarios for the future under alternative social, economic, political and demographic circumstances.
Data and methods: Population projections were prepared using a state-of-the-art projection model. The six scenarios differ in their future migration assumptions given that migration is the most variable and uncertain demographic
variable affecting the Territory’s population.
Results: The future of the Territory’s total population is very uncertain and may be anywhere between 250,000 and 500,000 by mid-century. However, some aspects of the Territory’s future demography (such as continued population ageing) are much more certain.
Conclusions: Population forecasts for the NT are useful for the short-term, but beyond that, scenarios and prediction intervals which indicate uncertainty have to be used. Flexible planning is required to accommodate uncertainty about the demographic future.
Original language | English |
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Publisher | Charles Darwin University, The Northern Institute |
Pages | 1-19 |
Number of pages | 19 |
Volume | 1/2016 |
Publication status | Published - 2016 |