Optimal health and disease management using spatial uncertainty: A geographic characterization of emergent artemisinin-resistant Plasmodium falciparum distributions in Southeast Asia

Eric P M Grist; Jennifer A. Flegg; Georgina Humphreys; Ignacio Suay Mas; Tim J C Anderson; Elizabeth A. Ashley; Nicholas P J Day; Mehul Dhorda; Arjen M. Dondorp; M. Abul Faiz; Peter W. Gething; Tran T. Hien; Tin M. Hlaing; Mallika Imwong; Jean Marie Kindermans; Richard J. Maude; Mayfong Mayxay; Marina McDew-White; Didier Menard; Shalini Nair; Francois Nosten; Paul N. Newton; Ric N. Price; Sasithon Pukrittayakamee; Shannon Takala-Harrison; Frank Smithuis; Nhien T. Nguyen; Kyaw M. Tun; Nicholas J. White; Benoit Witkowski; Charles J. Woodrow; Rick M. Fairhurst; Carol Hopkins Sibley; Philippe J. Guerin

doi:10.1186/s12942-016-0064-6

Optimal health and disease management using spatial uncertainty: A geographic characterization of emergent artemisinin-resistant Plasmodium falciparum distributions in Southeast Asia

Eric P M Grist, Jennifer A. Flegg, Georgina Humphreys, Ignacio Suay Mas, Tim J C Anderson, Elizabeth A. Ashley, Nicholas P J Day, Mehul Dhorda, Arjen M. Dondorp, M. Abul Faiz, Peter W. Gething, Tran T. Hien, Tin M. Hlaing, Mallika Imwong, Jean Marie Kindermans, Richard J. Maude, Mayfong Mayxay, Marina McDew-White, Didier Menard, Shalini NairFrancois Nosten, Paul N. Newton, Ric N. Price, Sasithon Pukrittayakamee, Shannon Takala-Harrison, Frank Smithuis, Nhien T. Nguyen, Kyaw M. Tun, Nicholas J. White, Benoit Witkowski, Charles J. Woodrow, Rick M. Fairhurst, Carol Hopkins Sibley, Philippe J. Guerin

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Abstract

Background: Artemisinin-resistant Plasmodium falciparum malaria parasites are now present across much of mainland Southeast Asia, where ongoing surveys are measuring and mapping their spatial distribution. These efforts require substantial resources. Here we propose a generic ‘smart surveillance’ methodology to identify optimal candidate sites for future sampling and thus map the distribution of artemisinin resistance most efficiently.

Methods: The approach uses the ‘uncertainty’ map generated iteratively by a geostatistical model to determine optimal locations for subsequent sampling.

Results: The methodology is illustrated using recent data on the prevalence of the K13-propeller polymorphism (a genetic marker of artemisinin resistance) in the Greater Mekong Subregion.

Conclusion: This methodology, which has broader application to geostatistical mapping in general, could improve the quality and efficiency of drug resistance mapping and thereby guide practical operations to eliminate malaria in affected areas.

Original language	English
Article number	37
Pages (from-to)	1-10
Number of pages	10
Journal	International Journal of Health Geographics
Volume	15
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1186/s12942-016-0064-6
Publication status	Published - 24 Oct 2016

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Grist, E. P. M., Flegg, J. A., Humphreys, G., Mas, I. S., Anderson, T. J. C., Ashley, E. A., Day, N. P. J., Dhorda, M., Dondorp, A. M., Faiz, M. A., Gething, P. W., Hien, T. T., Hlaing, T. M., Imwong, M., Kindermans, J. M., Maude, R. J., Mayxay, M., McDew-White, M., Menard, D., ... Guerin, P. J. (2016). Optimal health and disease management using spatial uncertainty: A geographic characterization of emergent artemisinin-resistant Plasmodium falciparum distributions in Southeast Asia. International Journal of Health Geographics, 15, 1-10. [37]. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12942-016-0064-6

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title = "Optimal health and disease management using spatial uncertainty: A geographic characterization of emergent artemisinin-resistant Plasmodium falciparum distributions in Southeast Asia",

abstract = "Background: Artemisinin-resistant Plasmodium falciparum malaria parasites are now present across much of mainland Southeast Asia, where ongoing surveys are measuring and mapping their spatial distribution. These efforts require substantial resources. Here we propose a generic {\textquoteleft}smart surveillance{\textquoteright} methodology to identify optimal candidate sites for future sampling and thus map the distribution of artemisinin resistance most efficiently.Methods: The approach uses the {\textquoteleft}uncertainty{\textquoteright} map generated iteratively by a geostatistical model to determine optimal locations for subsequent sampling.Results: The methodology is illustrated using recent data on the prevalence of the K13-propeller polymorphism (a genetic marker of artemisinin resistance) in the Greater Mekong Subregion.Conclusion: This methodology, which has broader application to geostatistical mapping in general, could improve the quality and efficiency of drug resistance mapping and thereby guide practical operations to eliminate malaria in affected areas.",

keywords = "Artemisinin, Drug resistance, Greater Mekong Subregion, Malaria, Surveillance",

author = "Grist, {Eric P M} and Flegg, {Jennifer A.} and Georgina Humphreys and Mas, {Ignacio Suay} and Anderson, {Tim J C} and Ashley, {Elizabeth A.} and Day, {Nicholas P J} and Mehul Dhorda and Dondorp, {Arjen M.} and Faiz, {M. Abul} and Gething, {Peter W.} and Hien, {Tran T.} and Hlaing, {Tin M.} and Mallika Imwong and Kindermans, {Jean Marie} and Maude, {Richard J.} and Mayfong Mayxay and Marina McDew-White and Didier Menard and Shalini Nair and Francois Nosten and Newton, {Paul N.} and Price, {Ric N.} and Sasithon Pukrittayakamee and Shannon Takala-Harrison and Frank Smithuis and Nguyen, {Nhien T.} and Tun, {Kyaw M.} and White, {Nicholas J.} and Benoit Witkowski and Woodrow, {Charles J.} and Fairhurst, {Rick M.} and Sibley, {Carol Hopkins} and Guerin, {Philippe J.}",

year = "2016",

month = oct,

day = "24",

doi = "10.1186/s12942-016-0064-6",

language = "English",

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journal = "International Journal of Health Geographics",

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Grist, EPM, Flegg, JA, Humphreys, G, Mas, IS, Anderson, TJC, Ashley, EA, Day, NPJ, Dhorda, M, Dondorp, AM, Faiz, MA, Gething, PW, Hien, TT, Hlaing, TM, Imwong, M, Kindermans, JM, Maude, RJ, Mayxay, M, McDew-White, M, Menard, D, Nair, S, Nosten, F, Newton, PN, Price, RN, Pukrittayakamee, S, Takala-Harrison, S, Smithuis, F, Nguyen, NT, Tun, KM, White, NJ, Witkowski, B, Woodrow, CJ, Fairhurst, RM, Sibley, CH & Guerin, PJ 2016, 'Optimal health and disease management using spatial uncertainty: A geographic characterization of emergent artemisinin-resistant Plasmodium falciparum distributions in Southeast Asia', International Journal of Health Geographics, vol. 15, 37, pp. 1-10. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12942-016-0064-6

Optimal health and disease management using spatial uncertainty : A geographic characterization of emergent artemisinin-resistant Plasmodium falciparum distributions in Southeast Asia. / Grist, Eric P M; Flegg, Jennifer A.; Humphreys, Georgina et al.

In: International Journal of Health Geographics, Vol. 15, 37, 24.10.2016, p. 1-10.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - Optimal health and disease management using spatial uncertainty

T2 - A geographic characterization of emergent artemisinin-resistant Plasmodium falciparum distributions in Southeast Asia

AU - Grist, Eric P M

AU - Flegg, Jennifer A.

AU - Humphreys, Georgina

AU - Mas, Ignacio Suay

AU - Anderson, Tim J C

AU - Ashley, Elizabeth A.

AU - Day, Nicholas P J

AU - Dhorda, Mehul

AU - Dondorp, Arjen M.

AU - Faiz, M. Abul

AU - Gething, Peter W.

AU - Hien, Tran T.

AU - Hlaing, Tin M.

AU - Imwong, Mallika

AU - Kindermans, Jean Marie

AU - Maude, Richard J.

AU - Mayxay, Mayfong

AU - McDew-White, Marina

AU - Menard, Didier

AU - Nair, Shalini

AU - Nosten, Francois

AU - Newton, Paul N.

AU - Price, Ric N.

AU - Pukrittayakamee, Sasithon

AU - Takala-Harrison, Shannon

AU - Smithuis, Frank

AU - Nguyen, Nhien T.

AU - Tun, Kyaw M.

AU - White, Nicholas J.

AU - Witkowski, Benoit

AU - Woodrow, Charles J.

AU - Fairhurst, Rick M.

AU - Sibley, Carol Hopkins

AU - Guerin, Philippe J.

PY - 2016/10/24

Y1 - 2016/10/24

N2 - Background: Artemisinin-resistant Plasmodium falciparum malaria parasites are now present across much of mainland Southeast Asia, where ongoing surveys are measuring and mapping their spatial distribution. These efforts require substantial resources. Here we propose a generic ‘smart surveillance’ methodology to identify optimal candidate sites for future sampling and thus map the distribution of artemisinin resistance most efficiently.Methods: The approach uses the ‘uncertainty’ map generated iteratively by a geostatistical model to determine optimal locations for subsequent sampling.Results: The methodology is illustrated using recent data on the prevalence of the K13-propeller polymorphism (a genetic marker of artemisinin resistance) in the Greater Mekong Subregion.Conclusion: This methodology, which has broader application to geostatistical mapping in general, could improve the quality and efficiency of drug resistance mapping and thereby guide practical operations to eliminate malaria in affected areas.

AB - Background: Artemisinin-resistant Plasmodium falciparum malaria parasites are now present across much of mainland Southeast Asia, where ongoing surveys are measuring and mapping their spatial distribution. These efforts require substantial resources. Here we propose a generic ‘smart surveillance’ methodology to identify optimal candidate sites for future sampling and thus map the distribution of artemisinin resistance most efficiently.Methods: The approach uses the ‘uncertainty’ map generated iteratively by a geostatistical model to determine optimal locations for subsequent sampling.Results: The methodology is illustrated using recent data on the prevalence of the K13-propeller polymorphism (a genetic marker of artemisinin resistance) in the Greater Mekong Subregion.Conclusion: This methodology, which has broader application to geostatistical mapping in general, could improve the quality and efficiency of drug resistance mapping and thereby guide practical operations to eliminate malaria in affected areas.

KW - Artemisinin

KW - Drug resistance

KW - Greater Mekong Subregion

KW - Malaria

KW - Surveillance

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U2 - 10.1186/s12942-016-0064-6

DO - 10.1186/s12942-016-0064-6

M3 - Article

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AN - SCOPUS:84992360038

VL - 15

SP - 1

EP - 10

JO - International Journal of Health Geographics

JF - International Journal of Health Geographics

SN - 1476-072X

M1 - 37

ER -

Optimal health and disease management using spatial uncertainty: A geographic characterization of emergent artemisinin-resistant Plasmodium falciparum distributions in Southeast Asia

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