Predicting the geographical distributions of the macaque hosts and mosquito vectors of Plasmodium knowlesi malaria in forested and non-forested areas

Catherine Moyes, FM Shearer, Zhi Huang, A Wiebe, Harry S Gibson, V Nijman, Jayasilan Mohd-Azlan, Jedediah Brodie, S Malaivijitnond, M Linkie, H Samejima, Timothy G O'Brien, Colin Trainor, Y Hamada, Anthony Giordano, MF Kinnaird, Iqbal Elyazar, M Sinka, I Vythilingam, Michael Bangs & 4 others David M Pigott, Daniel J Weiss, Nick Golding, Simon Hay

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    Abstract


    Background: Plasmodium knowlesi is a zoonotic pathogen, transmitted among macaques and to humans by anopheline mosquitoes. Information on P. knowlesi malaria is lacking in most regions so the first step to understand the geographical distribution of disease risk is to define the distributions of the reservoir and vector species.

    Methods: We used macaque and mosquito species presence data, background data that captured sampling bias in the presence data, a boosted regression tree model and environmental datasets, including annual data for land classes, to predict the distributions of each vector and host species. We then compared the predicted distribution of each species with cover of each land class.

    Results: Fine-scale distribution maps were generated for three macaque host species (Macaca fascicularis, M. nemestrina and M. leonina) and two mosquito vector complexes (the Dirus Complex and the Leucosphyrus Complex). The Leucosphyrus Complex was predicted to occur in areas with disturbed, but not intact, forest cover (> 60 % tree cover) whereas the Dirus Complex was predicted to occur in areas with 10–100 % tree cover as well as vegetation mosaics and cropland. Of the macaque species, M. nemestrina was mainly predicted to occur in forested areas whereas M. fascicularis was predicted to occur in vegetation mosaics, cropland, wetland and urban areas in addition to forested areas.

    Conclusions: The predicted M. fascicularis distribution encompassed a wide range of habitats where humans are found. This is of most significance in the northern part of its range where members of the Dirus Complex are the main P. knowlesi vectors because these mosquitoes were also predicted to occur in a wider range of habitats. Our results support the hypothesis that conversion of intact forest into disturbed forest (for example plantations or timber concessions), or the creation of vegetation mosaics, will increase the probability that members of the Leucosphyrus Complex occur at these locations, as well as bringing humans into these areas. An explicit analysis of disease risk itself using infection data is required to explore this further. The species distributions generated here can now be included in future analyses of P. knowlesi infection risk.
    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)1-12
    Number of pages12
    JournalParasites and Vectors
    Volume9
    Issue number1
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 2016

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    Plasmodium knowlesi
    Plasmodium malariae
    Macaca
    Macaca fascicularis
    Culicidae
    Ecosystem
    Selection Bias
    Wetlands
    Zoonoses
    Malaria
    Forests
    Mosquito Vectors
    Infection

    Cite this

    Moyes, Catherine ; Shearer, FM ; Huang, Zhi ; Wiebe, A ; Gibson, Harry S ; Nijman, V ; Mohd-Azlan, Jayasilan ; Brodie, Jedediah ; Malaivijitnond, S ; Linkie, M ; Samejima, H ; O'Brien, Timothy G ; Trainor, Colin ; Hamada, Y ; Giordano, Anthony ; Kinnaird, MF ; Elyazar, Iqbal ; Sinka, M ; Vythilingam, I ; Bangs, Michael ; Pigott, David M ; Weiss, Daniel J ; Golding, Nick ; Hay, Simon. / Predicting the geographical distributions of the macaque hosts and mosquito vectors of Plasmodium knowlesi malaria in forested and non-forested areas. In: Parasites and Vectors. 2016 ; Vol. 9, No. 1. pp. 1-12.
    @article{251a27d2ce4342bda57703ac326a4202,
    title = "Predicting the geographical distributions of the macaque hosts and mosquito vectors of Plasmodium knowlesi malaria in forested and non-forested areas",
    abstract = "Background: Plasmodium knowlesi is a zoonotic pathogen, transmitted among macaques and to humans by anopheline mosquitoes. Information on P. knowlesi malaria is lacking in most regions so the first step to understand the geographical distribution of disease risk is to define the distributions of the reservoir and vector species.Methods: We used macaque and mosquito species presence data, background data that captured sampling bias in the presence data, a boosted regression tree model and environmental datasets, including annual data for land classes, to predict the distributions of each vector and host species. We then compared the predicted distribution of each species with cover of each land class.Results: Fine-scale distribution maps were generated for three macaque host species (Macaca fascicularis, M. nemestrina and M. leonina) and two mosquito vector complexes (the Dirus Complex and the Leucosphyrus Complex). The Leucosphyrus Complex was predicted to occur in areas with disturbed, but not intact, forest cover (> 60 {\%} tree cover) whereas the Dirus Complex was predicted to occur in areas with 10–100 {\%} tree cover as well as vegetation mosaics and cropland. Of the macaque species, M. nemestrina was mainly predicted to occur in forested areas whereas M. fascicularis was predicted to occur in vegetation mosaics, cropland, wetland and urban areas in addition to forested areas.Conclusions: The predicted M. fascicularis distribution encompassed a wide range of habitats where humans are found. This is of most significance in the northern part of its range where members of the Dirus Complex are the main P. knowlesi vectors because these mosquitoes were also predicted to occur in a wider range of habitats. Our results support the hypothesis that conversion of intact forest into disturbed forest (for example plantations or timber concessions), or the creation of vegetation mosaics, will increase the probability that members of the Leucosphyrus Complex occur at these locations, as well as bringing humans into these areas. An explicit analysis of disease risk itself using infection data is required to explore this further. The species distributions generated here can now be included in future analyses of P. knowlesi infection risk.",
    author = "Catherine Moyes and FM Shearer and Zhi Huang and A Wiebe and Gibson, {Harry S} and V Nijman and Jayasilan Mohd-Azlan and Jedediah Brodie and S Malaivijitnond and M Linkie and H Samejima and O'Brien, {Timothy G} and Colin Trainor and Y Hamada and Anthony Giordano and MF Kinnaird and Iqbal Elyazar and M Sinka and I Vythilingam and Michael Bangs and Pigott, {David M} and Weiss, {Daniel J} and Nick Golding and Simon Hay",
    year = "2016",
    doi = "10.1186/s13071-016-1527-0",
    language = "English",
    volume = "9",
    pages = "1--12",
    journal = "Parasites and Vectors",
    issn = "1756-3305",
    publisher = "BioMed Central",
    number = "1",

    }

    Moyes, C, Shearer, FM, Huang, Z, Wiebe, A, Gibson, HS, Nijman, V, Mohd-Azlan, J, Brodie, J, Malaivijitnond, S, Linkie, M, Samejima, H, O'Brien, TG, Trainor, C, Hamada, Y, Giordano, A, Kinnaird, MF, Elyazar, I, Sinka, M, Vythilingam, I, Bangs, M, Pigott, DM, Weiss, DJ, Golding, N & Hay, S 2016, 'Predicting the geographical distributions of the macaque hosts and mosquito vectors of Plasmodium knowlesi malaria in forested and non-forested areas', Parasites and Vectors, vol. 9, no. 1, pp. 1-12. https://doi.org/10.1186/s13071-016-1527-0

    Predicting the geographical distributions of the macaque hosts and mosquito vectors of Plasmodium knowlesi malaria in forested and non-forested areas. / Moyes, Catherine; Shearer, FM; Huang, Zhi; Wiebe, A; Gibson, Harry S; Nijman, V; Mohd-Azlan, Jayasilan; Brodie, Jedediah; Malaivijitnond, S; Linkie, M; Samejima, H; O'Brien, Timothy G; Trainor, Colin; Hamada, Y; Giordano, Anthony; Kinnaird, MF; Elyazar, Iqbal; Sinka, M; Vythilingam, I; Bangs, Michael; Pigott, David M; Weiss, Daniel J; Golding, Nick; Hay, Simon.

    In: Parasites and Vectors, Vol. 9, No. 1, 2016, p. 1-12.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearchpeer-review

    TY - JOUR

    T1 - Predicting the geographical distributions of the macaque hosts and mosquito vectors of Plasmodium knowlesi malaria in forested and non-forested areas

    AU - Moyes, Catherine

    AU - Shearer, FM

    AU - Huang, Zhi

    AU - Wiebe, A

    AU - Gibson, Harry S

    AU - Nijman, V

    AU - Mohd-Azlan, Jayasilan

    AU - Brodie, Jedediah

    AU - Malaivijitnond, S

    AU - Linkie, M

    AU - Samejima, H

    AU - O'Brien, Timothy G

    AU - Trainor, Colin

    AU - Hamada, Y

    AU - Giordano, Anthony

    AU - Kinnaird, MF

    AU - Elyazar, Iqbal

    AU - Sinka, M

    AU - Vythilingam, I

    AU - Bangs, Michael

    AU - Pigott, David M

    AU - Weiss, Daniel J

    AU - Golding, Nick

    AU - Hay, Simon

    PY - 2016

    Y1 - 2016

    N2 - Background: Plasmodium knowlesi is a zoonotic pathogen, transmitted among macaques and to humans by anopheline mosquitoes. Information on P. knowlesi malaria is lacking in most regions so the first step to understand the geographical distribution of disease risk is to define the distributions of the reservoir and vector species.Methods: We used macaque and mosquito species presence data, background data that captured sampling bias in the presence data, a boosted regression tree model and environmental datasets, including annual data for land classes, to predict the distributions of each vector and host species. We then compared the predicted distribution of each species with cover of each land class.Results: Fine-scale distribution maps were generated for three macaque host species (Macaca fascicularis, M. nemestrina and M. leonina) and two mosquito vector complexes (the Dirus Complex and the Leucosphyrus Complex). The Leucosphyrus Complex was predicted to occur in areas with disturbed, but not intact, forest cover (> 60 % tree cover) whereas the Dirus Complex was predicted to occur in areas with 10–100 % tree cover as well as vegetation mosaics and cropland. Of the macaque species, M. nemestrina was mainly predicted to occur in forested areas whereas M. fascicularis was predicted to occur in vegetation mosaics, cropland, wetland and urban areas in addition to forested areas.Conclusions: The predicted M. fascicularis distribution encompassed a wide range of habitats where humans are found. This is of most significance in the northern part of its range where members of the Dirus Complex are the main P. knowlesi vectors because these mosquitoes were also predicted to occur in a wider range of habitats. Our results support the hypothesis that conversion of intact forest into disturbed forest (for example plantations or timber concessions), or the creation of vegetation mosaics, will increase the probability that members of the Leucosphyrus Complex occur at these locations, as well as bringing humans into these areas. An explicit analysis of disease risk itself using infection data is required to explore this further. The species distributions generated here can now be included in future analyses of P. knowlesi infection risk.

    AB - Background: Plasmodium knowlesi is a zoonotic pathogen, transmitted among macaques and to humans by anopheline mosquitoes. Information on P. knowlesi malaria is lacking in most regions so the first step to understand the geographical distribution of disease risk is to define the distributions of the reservoir and vector species.Methods: We used macaque and mosquito species presence data, background data that captured sampling bias in the presence data, a boosted regression tree model and environmental datasets, including annual data for land classes, to predict the distributions of each vector and host species. We then compared the predicted distribution of each species with cover of each land class.Results: Fine-scale distribution maps were generated for three macaque host species (Macaca fascicularis, M. nemestrina and M. leonina) and two mosquito vector complexes (the Dirus Complex and the Leucosphyrus Complex). The Leucosphyrus Complex was predicted to occur in areas with disturbed, but not intact, forest cover (> 60 % tree cover) whereas the Dirus Complex was predicted to occur in areas with 10–100 % tree cover as well as vegetation mosaics and cropland. Of the macaque species, M. nemestrina was mainly predicted to occur in forested areas whereas M. fascicularis was predicted to occur in vegetation mosaics, cropland, wetland and urban areas in addition to forested areas.Conclusions: The predicted M. fascicularis distribution encompassed a wide range of habitats where humans are found. This is of most significance in the northern part of its range where members of the Dirus Complex are the main P. knowlesi vectors because these mosquitoes were also predicted to occur in a wider range of habitats. Our results support the hypothesis that conversion of intact forest into disturbed forest (for example plantations or timber concessions), or the creation of vegetation mosaics, will increase the probability that members of the Leucosphyrus Complex occur at these locations, as well as bringing humans into these areas. An explicit analysis of disease risk itself using infection data is required to explore this further. The species distributions generated here can now be included in future analyses of P. knowlesi infection risk.

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    JO - Parasites and Vectors

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