The future of Australia’s Indigenous Population, 2011–61

Existing projections of Australia’s Indigenous population suffer from a number of limitations: problematic input data, unsatisfactory projection model design, and poor forecast performance. The aim of this study was to create a new model for projecting the Indigenous population which better represents the demographic processes at work, and which makes use of a newly available data source on identification change. A new projection model is presented which explicitly incorporates identification change, and mixed (Indigenous/non-Indigenous) partnering and childbearing. It is a composite static-dynamic model which takes a multistate form where data allow. The model was used to produce projections for the 2011-61 period. Rapid growth of the Indigenous is expected, with population momentum, identification change, and mixed partnering and childbearing shown to contribute more to growth than above-replacement fertility and increasing life expectancy. The future growth of Australia’s Indigenous population is thus intimately connected to its interaction with the non-Indigenous population.