Abstract
Existing projections of Australia’s Indigenous population suffer from a number of limitations: problematic input data, unsatisfactory projection model design, and poor forecast performance. The aim of this study was to create a new model for projecting the Indigenous population which better represents the demographic processes at work, and which makes use of a newly available data source on identification change. A new projection model is presented which explicitly incorporates identification change, and mixed (Indigenous/non-Indigenous) partnering and childbearing. It is a composite static-dynamic model which takes a multistate form where data allow. The model was used to produce projections for the 2011-61 period. Rapid growth of the Indigenous is expected, with population momentum, identification change, and mixed partnering and childbearing shown to contribute more to growth than above-replacement fertility and increasing life expectancy. The future growth of Australia’s Indigenous population is thus intimately connected to its interaction with the non-Indigenous population.
Original language | English |
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Pages (from-to) | 311-326 |
Number of pages | 16 |
Journal | Population Studies: a journal of demography |
Volume | 70 |
Issue number | 3 |
DOIs | |
Publication status | Published - 30 Sep 2016 |