The role of Australia’s extended baby boom in past and future population ageing

Thomas Wilson

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

How has the baby boom affected Australia’s population ageing up to the present, and how might it affect it over the rest of the 21st century? The baby boom is viewed as a deviation from an alternative trajectory in whichAustralia follows the textbook demographic transition model and maintains low fertility from the 1930s onwards. Thus the boom is seen asan extended baby boom from the mid-1930s to the mid-1970s. This research note uses some simple cohort-component scenario projections to illustrate the role of the extended boom generation in population ageing and what ageing Australia would have experienced had it followed the demographic transition model uncomplicated by a fertility rise. It providesanswers both in terms of numerical ageing and structural ageing. The scenario projections demonstrate that the boom caused a permanentupwards shift in numerical ageing and a long-run, but ultimately temporary, change in the development of structural ageing.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)95-109
Number of pages15
JournalNew Zealand Population Review
Volume38
Publication statusPublished - 2012
Externally publishedYes

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