Transitional pathways through middle school for First Nations students in the Northern Territory of Australia

The middle-school years (Year 7 to Year 9) is a particular challenge for socially disadvantaged populations, with high proportions of children either repeating school years or dropping out of school. In Australia, a group of particular concern is First Nations children for whom there is a collective effort by all governments to improve education outcomes, although there have been few studies of their transition through the middle-school years. This retrospective study, using individual-level linked data, followed a cohort of 7881 First Nations students for 2 years after enrolment in Year 7 (Y7) in any Northern Territory (NT) government school in the years from 2008 to 2014 to quantify the transitional pathways through middle school and identify the factors associated with faltering progress. We used multinomial multilevel logistic regression to identify the factors associated with school dropout and repeating Y7 or Y8 (Y7/8). Two years after Y7 enrolment, eight in ten First Nations students progressed to Y9 (78.8%), more than one in ten students had dropped out of school (13.3%) before reaching Y9, and one in 12 (7.9%) repeated Y7/8. The likelihood of either dropping out of school or repeating years was higher among students who were enrolled in Y7 when aged less than 11.5 years, had a low Y7 school attendance rate, moved to either interstate or non-government schools and who lived in a remote area. Students who were not born in the NT and those with a record of substantiated child maltreatment during Y7 were more likely to repeat Y7/8. Planning interventions to improve school retention through the middle-school years should consider these factors.