Abstract
Several coastal ecosystems—most notably mangroves and tidal marshes—exhibit biogenic feedbacks that are facilitating adjustment to relative sea-level rise (RSLR), including the sequestration of carbon and the trapping of mineral sediment 1. The stability of reef-top habitats under RSLR is similarly linked to reef-derived sediment accumulation and the vertical accretion of protective coral reefs 2. The persistence of these ecosystems under high rates of RSLR is contested 3. Here we show that the probability of vertical adjustment to RSLR inferred from palaeo-stratigraphic observations aligns with contemporary in situ survey measurements. A deficit between tidal marsh and mangrove adjustment and RSLR is likely at 4 mm yr−1 and highly likely at 7 mm yr−1 of RSLR. As rates of RSLR exceed 7 mm yr−1, the probability that reef islands destabilize through increased shoreline erosion and wave over-topping increases. Increased global warming from 1.5 °C to 2.0 °C would double the area of mapped tidal marsh exposed to 4 mm yr−1 of RSLR by between 2080 and 2100. With 3 °C of warming, nearly all the world’s mangrove forests and coral reef islands and almost 40% of mapped tidal marshes are estimated to be exposed to RSLR of at least 7 mm yr−1. Meeting the Paris agreement targets would minimize disruption to coastal ecosystems.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 112-119 |
| Number of pages | 8 |
| Journal | Nature |
| Volume | 621 |
| Issue number | 7977 |
| Early online date | 30 Aug 2023 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - 7 Sept 2023 |
Bibliographical note
Funding Information:We thank the authors of the IPCC projection for developing and making the sea-level rise projections available, multiple funding agencies for supporting the development of the projections, and the NASA Sea-Level Change Team for developing and hosting the IPCC AR6 Sea-Level Projection Tool. N.S. was supported by an Alexander Von Humboldt Research Award. R.E.K., G.G.G. and E.L.A. were supported by awards from the US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (80NSSC17K0698, 80NSSC20K1724 and JPL task 105393.509496.02.08.13.31) and National Science Foundation (ICER-1663807, ICER-2103754, OCE-1702587 and OCE-2002437). B. H. and T.A.S. were funded by the Ministry of Education Academic Research Fund MOE2019-T3-1-004, the National Research Foundation Singapore, and the Singapore Ministry of Education, under the Research Centres of Excellence initiative and the National Sea Level Programme Funding Initiative (Award USS-IF-2020-1), administered by the National Environment Agency, Singapore and supported by the National Research Foundation, Singapore. Any opinions, findings and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author(s) and do not reflect the views of the NRF, MND and NEA. T.E.T. was funded by the US National Science Foundation (OCE-0601814, EAR-1349311 and OCE-1502588). M.S. has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement no. 101037097 (REST-COAST project). C.L. was funded by the Australian Research Council award FL200100133. K.R. and C.W. were funded by the Australian Research Council Award DP210100739. The authors acknowledge PALSEA (Palaeo-Constraints on Sea-Level Rise), a working group of the International Union for Quaternary Sciences (INQUA) and Past Global Changes (PAGES), which in turn received support from the Swiss Academy of Sciences and the Chinese Academy of Sciences. This article is a contribution to HOLSEA (Geographic variability of Holocene sea level) and International Geoscience Program (IGCP) Project 725, ‘Forecasting Coastal Change’. This work is Earth Observatory of Singapore contribution 537.
Funding Information:
We thank the authors of the IPCC projection for developing and making the sea-level rise projections available, multiple funding agencies for supporting the development of the projections, and the NASA Sea-Level Change Team for developing and hosting the IPCC AR6 Sea-Level Projection Tool. N.S. was supported by an Alexander Von Humboldt Research Award. R.E.K., G.G.G. and E.L.A. were supported by awards from the US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (80NSSC17K0698, 80NSSC20K1724 and JPL task 105393.509496.02.08.13.31) and National Science Foundation (ICER-1663807, ICER-2103754, OCE-1702587 and OCE-2002437). B. H. and T.A.S. were funded by the Ministry of Education Academic Research Fund MOE2019-T3-1-004, the National Research Foundation Singapore, and the Singapore Ministry of Education, under the Research Centres of Excellence initiative and the National Sea Level Programme Funding Initiative (Award USS-IF-2020-1), administered by the National Environment Agency, Singapore and supported by the National Research Foundation, Singapore. Any opinions, findings and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author(s) and do not reflect the views of the NRF, MND and NEA. T.E.T. was funded by the US National Science Foundation (OCE-0601814, EAR-1349311 and OCE-1502588). M.S. has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement no. 101037097 (REST-COAST project). C.L. was funded by the Australian Research Council award FL200100133. K.R. and C.W. were funded by the Australian Research Council Award DP210100739. The authors acknowledge PALSEA (Palaeo-Constraints on Sea-Level Rise), a working group of the International Union for Quaternary Sciences (INQUA) and Past Global Changes (PAGES), which in turn received support from the Swiss Academy of Sciences and the Chinese Academy of Sciences. This article is a contribution to HOLSEA (Geographic variability of Holocene sea level) and International Geoscience Program (IGCP) Project 725, ‘Forecasting Coastal Change’. This work is Earth Observatory of Singapore contribution 537.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2023, The Author(s).
