AbstractThe purpose of this research project is to identify the most relevant independent factors affecting the annual growth in the demand for electricity in Darwin over a period commencing 1990 to 1994. The three econometric equations to be estimated are the annual energy consumption equations (GWh) for both domestic and commercial sectors and the maximum demand equation (MW). The linear regression analysis is used to estimate the three econometric equations. The location considered in the study is a geographical area covering the cities of Darwin and Palmerston.
The independent variables that have been considered suitable to outline the variation of annual energy consumption in both the domestic and commercial sectors are the Darwin population, number of electricity consumers, tariff structure, average annual earnings, gross state product per capita, level of housing finance commitment and the prevailing weather patterns.
It is found that factors such as number of domestic consumers and average annual earnings are suitable to explain variations in the domestic energy consumption estimate. However, at the selected 5% level of significance, only the number of domestic consumers stands as the most suitable independent variable to estimate the annual domestic energy consumption equation.Similar result is found in the case of estimating the commercial energy consumption equation, the commercial consumers independent variable is best used to predict variations in the annual commercial energy consumption.
The domestic energy consumption and the commercial energy consumption independent variables are found to provide the most appropriate means in estimating the maximum demand equation. The forecast of these econometric equations will assist the Supply Authority to plan ahead for future Electricity Generation, Transmission and Distribution expansion or augmentation. It will also provide a means to assess future long-term fuel contracts as well as to evaluate appropriate capital investment requirements for domestic and commercial consumers.
|Date of Award||Jan 1996|
|Supervisor||Sajid Anwar (Supervisor)|